The Reserve Bank of Australia has admitted the dollar is squeezing
the economy harder than expected but that it has limited room to cut
interest rates because of the mining investment boom and carbon tax.
In a statement on monetary policy published on Friday, officials at
the central bank upgraded their outlook for economic growth and
inflation and said the resources investment boom might peak earlier than
thought, in 2013-14.
For the first time, the Reserve Bank suggested the dollar might be
too high, while pointing to the risks of intervening in the markets to
send the dollar lower.
It said the Swiss National Bank, which is defending a currency
ceiling, had been forced to sell rising numbers of freshly printed
francs, piling up a €130 billion hoard of reserves in three months that
were now being swapped for other currencies, including the dollar.
The Reserve Bank acknowledged the dollar was high despite the
worsening global backdrop and lower terms of trade – the ratio of import
prices to export prices.
“It is possible that the persistently high level of the exchange rate
may be more contractionary for the economy than historical
relationships suggest,” it said in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
Over the past two weeks The Australian Financial Review has
reported calls by former board members Warwick McKibbin and Adrian Pagan
for the bank to drive down the dollar by printing money to sell to
foreign central banks.
Central banks in Germany, Kazakhstan, Russia, the Czech Republic,
Switzerland, Qatar, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi – as well as technology
companies Google, Microsoft and Apple – have purchased almost 77 per
cent of Australia’s AAA-rated government bonds.
The dollar traded just above $US1.05 late on Friday after hitting $1.06 during the week, its highest in 4½ months.
Professor McKibbin told the Weekend Financial Review on
Friday: “They’re saying that in fact there could be a case where there
is actually an overvaluation [in the dollar] and at some point something
is probably going to have to be done about it.”
JPMorgan senior economist Stephen Walters said while he doubted the
RBA was planning to intervene, its commentary showed the dollar was
being closely monitored.
“This is part of the process of maybe trying to get it down. I’m sure
there will be a lot of talk over the weekend that at least it’s on
their radar – and that can be effective jawboning,” he said.
“There might be a suspicion they’ll do something about it.”
Such a move would potentially drag Australia into the global
“currency wars” among countries trying to lower their exchange rates.
The central bank left the official cash rate unchanged on Tuesday for
a second month, noting the dollar had remained high despite falls in
commodity prices and concern about weaker global growth.
The bank’s economists upgraded their outlook for annual gross
domestic product growth in the December quarter to 3.5 per cent from
their May prediction of 3 per cent after a surge in household spending
that was helped by government handouts.
Treasurer Wayne Swan said the RBA’s assessment highlighted the nation’s “rock-solid economic fundamentals”.
“The RBA has today confirmed our economy is currently travelling
along better than expected, with growth upgrades that now have our
economy growing at above-trend pace this year.”
Annual underlying inflation is forecast to strengthen to 2.5 per cent
in the December quarter, 0.25 of a percentage point higher than was
anticipated in May.
The carbon tax, introduced last month, is expected to push underlying
measures of inflation to the top half of the bank’s 2 per cent to 3 per
cent target range by the middle of next year.
The Reserve Bank warned there was “significant uncertainty” about
when second-round effects from the tax would show up in prices.
UBS economist Scott Haslem said the forecasts implied inflation was nearing its weakest pace in the current economic cycle.
“The RBA rarely, if ever, eases policy again when it thinks it’s passed the underlying inflation trough,” Mr Haslem said.
He expects the cash rate to remain on hold at 3.5 per cent, “possibly for a very long time”.
Reserve Bank officials renewed their warnings about the threat posed
by Europe as well as the potential for a faster than anticipated
slowdown in China.
Australia’s terms of trade, which have fallen about 10 per cent since
their peak in last year’s September quarter, were expected to continue
declining gradually.
“But they could fall more quickly if global demand is weaker than expected,” the bank said.
“This would lead to lower growth in domestic incomes, including government revenue, weakening domestic demand.
“Some resources companies have adopted a more cautious approach to
investment opportunities currently under consideration (but to which
they are not yet committed) given the more uncertain global outlook,” it
said.
Resource investment – adjusted for its use of imports – was expected
to subtract “modestly” from GDP growth over 2014 after accounting for
more than half of the GDP growth in 2011, the bank said.
Officials at the bank said recent low inflation readings were likely
to have reflected a combination of margin pressure and better
productivity growth.
The central bank said it was too early to be sure the recent gains in productivity growth would endure.
“These developments have been driven by heightened competitive
pressure in some parts of the economy but, given the economy overall is
still operating close to capacity, such restraints could lessen if there
is a material pick-up in sentiment and demand,” it said.
